A Dive Into Base Metals Investing – A Focus On What Can Driver Copper
Brien Leni joins me today to discuss where he stands on investing in the base metals. We focus on copper but also mention a number of other base metals from an investment angle. There is a supply and demand side as well as outside factors that have been driving price over the past few years.
During Friday’s bearish action someone commented that this week was going to be ugly and I replied that I thought we could bottom before Wednesday. It’s obviously too soon to know if that will be the case but it now looks very possible.
On January 3, 2020 at 1:19 pm,
Matthew says:
Based on the weekly chart and the fact that a lot of buyers have been waiting for a pullback, I bet any follow-through will be over before Wednesday.
Since next week will be the real first week of the year for a lot professionals as well as retail investors, I expect a lot more buying than selling.
Matthew, It was me who commented I’m in unleveraged position at the moment and I’m liking silver a lot. Thank you!
You’re smart, leverage should be used very sparingly most of the time!
What??!!!???
Leverage used sparingly??!!!
Where the heck is the gamble in that???
Im Looong baby, now roll them dice 😉
I know you’re at least half joking but debt related leverage is very different than the naturally occurring kind we get in the miners.
Not joking, Im long the metals.
But I see it all as gambling, Im looking for hoooome ruuns.
1/2 cent to 15 cents would do 😉
Shares seem to be dickin around so I keep adding phyzz, gold, ….. silver is the cheaper buy but I have more than enuff and it takes up too much room.
If you havnt noticed I see thing a tad dif than other people do.
Its loong metals time, its gonna be a bull run extraordinaire, which I absolutely must have as Im a terrible trader.
Roll them dice, baby needs new shoes.
I know you’re long; I thought you were joking about leverage used sparingly.
This is a huge breakout and it won’t be pretty if it fails. Take a look at that perfect new weekly MACD buy signal. It would be unusual to lose such a signal so quickly so if we do, look out below!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=1&dy=0&id=p91849037486&a=711683219
Daily chart volume has been good for GLD…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p09247802986&a=670657671
…and better for gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p63648066118
Aiding the bears this week is the extremely overbought daily chart and the arrival above the R2 Pivot (among other things):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p06783906398
And aiding the bulls is the fantastic look of the weekly chart (among other things):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p07868656032&a=696262434
I obviously side with the bulls and the weekly chart IS more important than the daily but the bullish outcome is scarily uncertain (though I am admittedly treating it as though it is).
KTN is getting ready for .40+
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p63187253508&a=684730971
0.40++ feels nice!
Give it to me😉
I don’t think it will take long!
Is it April 2021 that the listed warrants expire? Thanks!
Yes, April 21, 2021. I’d be out of them near the next intermediate term top if I were you. Timing is extremely important with warrants and even more so as they approach one year remaining (time decay is tremendous after that).
Americans can’t hold them beyond expiration even if they are in the money since only Canadians can exercise them. Forget that and you’ll lose 100% of your investment.
Good luck!
Gladly would take it. 🤞🤞🤞
GLD at 2012 resistance:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=11&dy=0&id=p96579060631&a=701465400
Gold looks great versus bonds…
GLD:TLT weekly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3ATLT&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p20712965739&a=576544699
The only copper I own in miners is just part of the gold mining. I am really interested but now is not the time for me. I have been saving copper pennies for a few years though.
I totally agree, now is not the time.
Mathew Gold in CAD all time highs 2,042.58 +10.48+0.52%.
Long term looks great. Big caps acting well in longer term up trends.
The sector will really light-up when it is at a new all-time high versus the USD.
For sure nobodies on this yet….
Is Bill a new bug……………
Nope…commodity cycle is beginning and I’m caught up on my Real Estate chores 😉
Was in in 2000 out accept for coinage 2010i sh
The cycle never finished, just took a breather…….. 🙂
Still have my real estate and all paid for a long time…..since 88….
Should be interesting going forward……..what does marty armstrong have to say…..
IT IS CALLED A WAR CYCLE……….. 🙂
Does anyone know best way to invest small amount into food commodities?
I’m not sure if it’s what you had in mind but there’s the ETF MOO
https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/moo/overview/
Yes, thanks again friend.
You’re welcome, Fritz.
Top 10 Agricultural Commodity ETFs
https://www.etf.com/etf-daily-news/10651-top-10-agricultural-commodity-etfs.html
Actually this is better, I am looking at grains. Thanks
Bought some more AXU this morning at $2.11. Hopefully you are right Matthew that tomorrow begins the turnaround. i’d love to see a slingshot move up. DBA is an ETF that plays the agricuture futures also, but MOO is a good one. I haven’t played either in years though.
As you might’ve guessed, I bought more Brixton today. 😲
Only a matter of time. I might pick up a few more shares if it goes back down to retest the bottom, but it is struggling mightily to get there. Can you take a few days off??
I will leave it alone tomorrow and maybe even the rest of the week. I’ll stick to that even if it drops a lot but it will be tough!
Looks like a giant double top in the works for Dow priced in XAU. The 2018 high for that pairing was slightly higher than the one 2.75 years earlier but came with negative technical divergences. Dow:XAU also closed last quarter below its 20 quarter MA. It hadn’t done that since 2011. It is also on weekly, monthly, and quarterly MACD sell signals.
Watch a move below the August low:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24XAU&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p84507094480
Mathew I’ve got 60k of BBB.
Dow goes into melt up if crisis continues… Its a sure bet I think.
Could be but the miners will smoke it.
TOTALLY agree Mathew….
The ISVLF 60-minute chart sure looks nice here. Nice little handle forming with B-bands tightening.
Even better, it is about to break out vs GDX:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF%3AGDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p89351862976&a=637442068
That is even better. Thanks.
Fork resistance-turned-support has held on the pullback so far:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p73951210259&a=677087368
There’s some old fork resistance above…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p51908566148&a=649382878
Some speed line resistance way above and how about that bullish volume in recent weeks…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p24448571309&a=642610362
I was just going to comment on how the bullish volume (which is very impressive) far outweighs the bearish volume bars. I wish one of these darn junior silvers would pop! Its going to be like watching popcorn pop.
Yes, the volume is a very good sign and it’s probably bullish that I find this week to be a little scary!
Charles – I believe you’re spot on that once these Jr silver miners start to surge, it will be like watching popcorn pop, and I’m glad I’ve got some different kernels warming up in the pan. 🙂
I’d mentioned last week that it looked like IPT priced in SCZ had hit resistance (which was the 200 day SMA) and that is what played out thus far. I believe both have a very good year ahead of them in 2020, as do most of the Silver Jrs. Cheers!
_______________________________________________
On December 30, 2019 at 10:02 am,
Excelsior says:
IPT:SCZ looks like it has hit interesting resistance as well.
I’ve beefed up positions in both Impact and Santacruz Silver lately and both are quite similar plays for highly torqued leverage to rising prices.
Both IPT and SCZ are Canadian Silver Jr Producers operating in Mexico, and both have 2 active producing Silver mines. Both are higher cost producers, so the rising metals prices have a big effect on their margins on a percentage basis. They are also valued in the same general area so they are good peers and both should have fantastic years in 2020.
IPT has a current Market Cap of $47 Million and Enterprise value of $43 Million
SCZ has a current Market Cap of $32 Million and Enterprise value of $39 Million
Impact Silver is more widely followed and has a 10 day average volume of 356K, where Santacruz Silver has a 10 day average volume of only 187K.
Good luck to the silver wingnuts in 2020!
correction: Santacruz just added in a 3rd Silver mine (Zimapan) in Q3 2019, which should beef up their production moving forward.
Zimapan is also more economic than the other 2 (Veta Grande and Rosario), but those 2 are being optimized and improving. Moving forward this will bring their overall AISC down as Silver prices are on the rise, so that looks to be a constructive environment for Santacruz to go from right below profitability to profitability.
Impact just crossed over from below profitability to profitable in Q3, so that is also very encouraging.
Once Silver ratchets up above the 2016 surge high of $21.23, these smaller Jr Silver producers are going really put on their dancing shoes.
Dolly Varden (DV) (DOLLF) is Silver Jr advanced explorer & developer that should have a much better 2020 than it did in 2019.
______________________________________________________
2019 Year In Review for the Dolly Varden Silver Program in the Golden Triangle, British Columbia
by @newswire on 10 Dec 2019
“Our team has advanced the Dolly Varden project substantially over the past season, including new discoveries from diamond drilling, an updated mineral resource estimate, and completion of successful metallurgical tests. As well, on the ground we have improved the logistical advantages and strengthened our relationships with the community. The Dolly Varden project is well positioned for growth in the coming year” stated Gary Cope, President & CEO.”
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/2019-year-in-review-for-the-dolly-varden-silver-program
Those are my 3 companies (IPT, SCZ, DV) for the 2020 contest over at ceo.ca.
I’m going to continue buying more IPT or SCZ whenever one gets to an extreme on that ratio chart, and started nibbling at DV today. I’ll likely add more to DV tomorrow and through the end of the week, just to beef it up a bit more in the portfolio.
Ever Upward!
Regarding volume levels, this post from a contributor @ValueInvest over at ceo.ca on On Balance Volume was helpful to review, and he posted a good looking GDX chart:
________________________________________________________
@ValueInvest – “What makes a stock go up? When there are more buyers than sellers. Not Correct. When the buyers are more aggressive than the sellers. Is there an indicator to measure this? Yes, OBV.”
“On Balance Volume adds Volume on UP days and subtracts Volume on DOWN days. When the OBV rises, it means that Volume on UP days is higher than Volume on DOWN days. It means the buyers are more aggressive than the sellers. It means institutional buying.”
“$GDX its On Balance Volume is spiking right now. It indicates that buyers are much more aggressive than sellers. It indicates institutional accumulation. The smart money knows what is coming and they have been taking their positions. Take a look at the chart, we are in for a crazy ride over the next 6 months. ”
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
“Gold mining junior-to-senior ratio now breaking out from a decade-long resistance.”
“A perfect prelude for a precious metals bull market.”
Graddhy – Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc
$GDX & $GDXJ #Chart
“Small consolidations on daily with a probable DCH on day 35 for GDX. Up against major resistance on weekly, plus for GDX, massive thin zone starts just above which is usually resistance at first. Probable mild DC decline now, then break through during second DC.”
Silver is staying alive. Notice the move above 100 on the CCI (123) at the bottom of the page. When that happened in July, silver went on to gain another 23%…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p85996095575&a=500462915
I picked up a few onces of gold today, I got a third degree questioning.
Who was I? Why am I buying? Whats this cash stuff?
I couldnt believe it, they said I could be laundering drugs, I told them they caught me, I work for the cia running herion from Afghanistan and generally we use hsbc but just for today we figured we would use Albern for the left over cash hsbc couldnt handle.
You cant tell me sumtin isnt up concerning gold.
Could the conspiracy theorists be right? Say it aint so.
The conspiracy theorists have always been right when it comes to the claim that tyrants love gold for themselves but hate it for everyone else.
The despicable FDR outlawed the ownership of an inert metal yet morons everywhere still think he was just swell!
cia is looking to hire some new drug runners……..seems the walls are closing in on the runners………….Ukraine ….was a problem , plus Epstein has put a dent in the operations…..
gold is almost 1600, maybe shares move up tomorrow.
A number of larger miners had their shares mover higher in after-hours extended trading.
It would be nice to see a little more response from the miners on the new highs in Gold, but this had been mostly a flight to safe havens due to the US/Iran situation. Regardless, it is constructive to the charts and shows Gold is in another impulse leg to a higher high above the $1566.20 peak from September.
Unfortunately, the miners haven’t done nearly as much off this move as they would have if Gold had gone up due to Fed babble or fiscal concerns. Still at these higher metals prices, producers have better margins, developers have more valuable assets in the ground and better economics, and the resources explorers drill out are getting more and more valuable.
Matt Geiger – For the Junior Miners, M & A Will Continue to Increase During 2020
by @PalisadeRadio on 7 Jan 2020
“the Nickel Market, the recent M & A activity within the junior mining space”
All true EX.
People run to phyzz for now, in time the jrs will move, no doubt.
Absolutely. When the miners finally get more in gear in 2020 I believe the moves higher will really surprise folks, including most PM bulls.
When some of the institutional and hedge funds start seeing out-sized gains in the Jr Gold and Silver miners, then the momentum traders will pile in, and then things will get exciting once again as the volume pours in to this tiny sector.
I expect a home run or two, maybe ipt and scz.
ya never know.
Good grief………..$1610…..what a hoot
A “hoot” yes. The reason, not so much!
Posted hoot, before, I read or heard Iran dropping some bombs……..been relaxing today at the beach….and internet was down for some reason…….
‘Pricing for an all-out war’: Oil, gold prices spike on Iran missile attack
By David Scutt – January 8, 2020
Gold soars past $1,600/ounce after Iran attack on U.S. forces
Reuters – Tuesday January 07, 2020
As a followup……………..Gold back down, after Iran misses target,…just creating holes in the sand……
What is interesting is the Ukraine Plane Crash………..since Ukraine has been in the news the last several weeks………Wonder if any Club K players on board.
Club K, for those who do not know, are the missiles , which have been built to be mobile weapons in shipping containers….developed by the rogue traders (and traitors ) in our (usa) govt. The us govt have players (traitors) who are profiting from war…old oss and cia players,…… but, most of you already know that…
If, you want to see these weapons, you can find pictures at George Webb site.
OOTB – Thanks for popping in from the beach to drop a few lines. Hope all is going well.
E……thanks to you………Hope all is going well with you also.
All is going well sir… except that I wasn’t on the beach earlier today. 🙂
Iran red hot……….bombs gold going up might stay up…..
Whole new ball game……..
Expect you are right……….
Gold up today and my screen has bloodshot eyes.
Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000
Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani…
zerohedge
Some people are buying gold but it looks like bitcoin has more interest than the gold shares.
Will the expression no rush like a gold rush still apply?
Course there is that nasty currency habit of devaluation………